A Bug and a Crash
Guess what caused the expensive crash
of the Ariane 5 in 1996. And what does it say about software
design?
The End of Cash
Make way for digibucks, cybercash, e-bills,
and the rest. If we're going to have digital money, what's the right kind
of digital money?
Microspeak
"Design side effects"? "Known issues"?
How they talk (and why).
The Doctor's Plot
You don't believe people are being abducted
by aliens, do you? Wacky belief manias are a truly destructive force in our
society.
Here's a
modest proposal for helping the world cope with Microsoft. Split the company
into tripletsthree equal, cloned Microsofts. Robert Bork, once upon
a time too conservative to get onto the Supreme Court, has been floating
this, speculatively, he says, since the company hasn't yet been found
guilty.
It sounds scary, at first: three new companies, each starting
fresh with its own copy of the Windows source code, and each with its own
copy of the gene for Determination to Vanquish All Competitors and Control
the World. There would be complications, for sure. The three new Microsofts
couldn't really be identical. For example, only one of them (call it "Huey")
could have Bill Gates himself, the chief executive once famous for holding
a tactical and strategic roadmap of the entire computer industry inside his
head. Dewey and Louie would have to go scrounging for CEO's of their own.
Then again, maybe that's not so important; after all, in his testimony for
the ongoing antitrust case, Gates has sworn that he didn't actually know
much about his company's key business decisions. ("Q: Did
you ever try to find out? A: I read something that was on our
Web site about four days ago"; "Q: Are you aware of an agreement
that Intuit entered into with Microsoft? A: I know there was
some kind of an agreement. I wasn't part of negotiating it, nor do I know
what was in it.")
Maybe one of the companies could get the kind of chief executive
who would be willing to show up in court, take responsibility for the business,
and explain its actions forthrightly and enthusiastically and proudly.
Meanwhile, to avoid colluding
with himself, Gates might have to sell his stock in all but one of the new
Microsoftsat an enormous profit. "But that's not an objection," notes
Bork. "If Bill Gates gets even richer, that doesn't violate antitrust
laws."
Competing software companies might not rejoice at the prospect
of confronting three fierce and powerful opponents where now they have just
one, but that doesn't trouble Bork, either, though he is working as a paid
consultant for Netscape. "Preserving Netscape is not the object of the antitrust
laws," he says. "The object is consumer welfare."
Earlier proposals for breaking up Microsoft have tended to imagine
separating the different pieces of its well integrated empire: one company
for the operating system, and another for applications, and maybe another
for Internet services. That has a kind of natural logic, because Microsoft
is accused of leveraging its control of one realm to gain advantage in the
others. But this approachthe so-called "vertical" splitmight
be messy and hard to enforce. Microsoft has taken pains to stress how difficult
it is to draw boundaries; yesterday's application tends to become today's
operating-system feature.
A horizontal splitthe cloning proposalwould let
the Government step aside and stay out of the software business. Set the
threeor five, or sevennew Microsofts loose and let them compete,
with one another and with everyone else. That's what happened in 1911, when
the early trust-busters succeeded in breaking up Standard Oil, which dominated
the oil business almost as comprehensively as Microsoft does personal-computer
software.
One beneficiary would be the PC manufacturers. They would suddenly
have a choice of suppliers of the operating system without which their machines
don't run. Their unaccustomed new bargaining power would presumably push
prices down and also let them refuse some of the onerous contract restrictions
that Microsoft has been able to impose. Microsoft maintains that Windows
is already a great bargain, but it refuses to disclose how much money it
makes from the operating system; Wall Street analysts know only that the
company as a whole has exceeded their earnings forecasts for 27 consecutive
quarters (good thing these analysts aren't trying to make a living handicapping
football games).
Maybe the new companies would compete by specializing. Certainly
any new versions of Windows or of Microsoft's ubiquitous cash-cow Office
suite would have to be compatible with the versions everyone has nowany
drastic change would be suicide. But Huey might decide to be known for quality
and stability: instead of adding bulky new features, it might create a lean
and crash-proof version. Dewey could favor futuristic experimentation and
power users. (Maybe Louie could specialize in the lyric poetry of error messages;
it would be a shame if the world forever lost this specimen of Microsoft
wisdom, from Word: Permanently changes the selected Unknown into the object
type Unknown.)
In the long run, Microsoft's
shareholders might thank the Antitrust Division. Maybe even in the short
runit's hard to imagine the stock market betting against the three
clones.
Microsoft has said many times that it already lives in a highly
competitive environment; that it wants nothing more than the freedom to
"innovate" on behalf of consumers; that it seeks no particular advantage
from its monolithic dominance over software markets. A horizontal breakup
would create the world the company likes to pretend already exists. Each
new Microsoft would start life with an enormous stockpile of cash, an impressive
reservoir of talent, rights to what may be the industry's most formidable
portfolio of software patents and, most important, a genuine need to innovate
on behalf of consumers.
They just wouldn't wield quite so strong a hammer. Huey, Dewey
and Louie could theoretically engage in actions that might be illegal for
a monopolist. They could change their operating system to sabotage audio
and video players from companies like Apple and Real Networks, as Microsoft
did. They could attempt to bludgeon chip makers like Intel with threats to
withhold support for their microprocessors. They could selectively withhold
technical information or demand control of PC manufacturers' start-up screens.
They could do all these things legally, because they would no longer be a
monopoly; but they might not trybecause they would no longer be a monopoly,
and so, for the first time in years, all these companies would have an
opportunity to say no.
"I think it would be good for everyone but Microsoft," says
James Love, director of the
Consumer Project
on Technology. "Consumers might choose the company that was least predatory.
It would be easy to boycott the 'bad Microsoft' if there were at least one
company that wasn't so bad."
First published in the New York Times
Magazine 14 February 1999